Bitcoin is now ‘too important to ignore’, Deutsche Bank says

Bitcoin’s (BTC) market capitalization of $1 trillion and potential for continued growth have made the cryptocurrency “too important to ignore,” according to Deutsche Bank analysts.

Deutsche Bank Research, the financial research subsidiary of global banking giant Deutsche Bank, issued a report devoted exclusively to Bitcoin, titled “The Future of Payments: Series 2 Part III. Bitcoins: Can the Tinkerbell Effect Become a Self-Fulfilling Prophecy?”

In the 18-page study, Deutsche Bank Research describes the basic characteristics of Bitcoin and analyzes the key drivers of its historical price growth to a $1 trillion asset.

Deutsche Bank analysts suggested that the Bitcoin price “could continue to rise” further as long as asset managers and companies continue to enter the market. The firm emphasized that central banks and governments now “understand that Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are here to stay” and thus are expected to start regulating them by late 2021.

Despite its rising valuation, Bitcoin’s growth as an asset class could be hampered by its “still limited” tradability and liquidity, Deutsche Bank Research warned. “The real debate is whether rising valuations alone can be reason enough for bitcoin to evolve into an asset class, or whether its illiquidity is an obstacle,” the analysts stated.

Bitcoin is expected to “remain ultravolatile” in the short term, Deutsche Bank analysts concluded, forecasting a turning point for Bitcoin in the next “two or three years” as a consensus about its future may emerge.

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Germany’s financial regulator issues retail crypto investment warning

Germany’s Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, or BaFin, has warned investors about the risks involved in cryptocurrency investments.

In a consumer protection alert issued on its website on Friday, the regulator offered a cautionary tale about crypto involvement on the part of retail investors.

As part of its statement, BaFin echoed similar admonitions espoused by several European regulators including the European Securities and Markets Authority and the European Banking Authority.

According to BaFin, retail investors need to be aware of the risks of incurring 100% losses from their crypto investments.

While European Union lawmakers are still working toward creating an EU-wide set of laws for digital currencies, German regulators already have some legal framework for digital assets in the country.

Crypto custody providers, exchanges and other businesses can only operate in Germany under license from BaFin. As previously reported by Cointelegraph, the country legalized digital securities back in December 2020.

Under the somewhat clear-cut regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies in Germany, some banks in the country have even sought approval to begin offering crypto custody solutions.

In December 2020, 224-year-old German bank Hauck & Aufhauser announced plans to establish a cryptocurrency fund.

Despite these laws, BaFin said there is no protection against losses for retail consumers in the cryptocurrency space, hence the warning.

Crypto investment warnings are a popular occurrence among financial regulators across the globe, especially against the backdrop of the current bull market. Unlike mainstream finance with its qualified investor criteria, the crypto market offers easier market participation channels to “Mom and Pop” investors.

In 2021 alone, regulators from South Africa to the United Kingdom, and even Thailand, have issued similar warnings. Back in February, Thailand’s finance minister criticized the current cryptocurrency speculative surge and warned of the potential for massive losses on the part of retail investors.

Meanwhile, the European Commission’s Markets in Crypto Assets legislative proposal is still causing some concern among industry stakeholders.

Earlier in March, the International Association for Trusted Blockchain Applications issued a detailed report based on surveys and engagements with crypto industry players indicating that some MiCA provisions were hostile to the growth of startups.

Visa Anticipates Extreme Cryptocurrency Mainstream Adoption

Visa has escalated its efforts to support digital currencies and is introducing products that help bridge the gap between traditional currencies and cryptocurrencies. In a recent podcast, Visa CEO Al Kelly suggested that he anticipates cryptocurrencies will become ‘extremely mainstream’ within five years. He further stated his desire to position Visa in the middle of this cryptocurrency boom.

Visa’s crypto ventures – In September 2020, Visa integrated the firm Cred into their program to allow issuance of crypto credit cards. In December 2020, Visa partnered with Wirex, which is able to issue Visa cards to its customers. The latest statement from its CEO confirms that it’s accelerating its efforts to facilitate easy access to cryptocurrencies to its users.

Visa’s Cryptocurrency Strategy

Visa is working towards two strategies in Bitcoin – one is to enable the purchase of Bitcoin on Visa credentials, and the second is to work with Bitcoin wallets so that Bitcoin can be translated into a fiat currency and utilized across Visa’s 70 million merchants.

In regards to cryptocurrencies, Kelly stated that Visa is working with 35 different players to facilitate users’ purchase of these digital currencies using their Visa credentials or to cash out onto Visa credentials to make a fiat purchase at any of the 70 million merchants.

Looking ahead – Visa wants its fair share of Bitcoin in case the cryptocurrency industry does take off on the scale that many anticipate.

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Morgan Stanley Offers its Clients Exposure to Bitcoin

A new report reveals that Morgan Stanley is accelerating its efforts to engage in the cryptocurrency industry. A CNBC report states that the Wall Street firm is offering its high-end clients access to three funds that provide exposure to Bitcoin. The report cites an internal memo and unnamed people as the sources of the latest news.

Morgan Stanley’s crypto ventures – Last month, Cryptohopper reported that Morgan Stanley’s $150 billion investment arm, Counterpoint Global, was considering investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. Earlier this month, the $4 trillion firm joined a $200 million investment in Bitcoin firm NYDIG. Morgan Stanley also holds a major stake in MicroStrategy, which now holds more than 72,000 Bitcoins.

Exposure to Bitcoin

CNBC’s report reveals that this latest move is due to Morgan Stanley clients’ increasing demand for exposure to Bitcoin. The report details involvement with three funds: two of the funds are from Galaxy Digital and the third is a joint effort from FS Investments and NYDIG.

Morgan Stanley has restrictions in place to limit risk – participating firms must comply with restrictions, including at least $5 million at the bank in order to qualify for exposure to these funds. Additionally, it is limiting its exposure to Bitcoin investments to 2.5% of the firms’ total net worth.

Bottom line – The move directly correlates to the rise in institutional client’s demand towards exposure to cryptocurrency investments.

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Blockchain Technology Explained and What It Could Mean for the Caribbean

Blockchain is a distributed ledger technology that evolved from the internet of information and represents a second phase of the internet. Whereas the first era of the internet democratized the exchange of information, blockchain promises to democratize the exchange of real value. Blockchain emerged in late 2008, in the midst of the global financial crisis. Satoshi Nakamoto released a new protocol for a “A Peer-to Peer Electronic Cash System” and created a digital currency or cryptocurrency called Bitcoin based on block chain technology, with the first Bitcoin transaction being realized on January 12, 2009. Cryptocurrencies differ from traditional fiat money in that it is not issued by a national state. They are not stored in a bank vault or a credit recorded in an electronic file somewhere; it is a global spreadsheet or ledge of all transactions which leverages the resources of a large peer-to-peer network to review and approve each bitcoin transaction. But blockchain is more that cryptocurrencies, blockchain has more applications and investors realize commercial potential and money is entering at fast pace.

Blockchain has five properties that makes it a potentially transformative and disruptive technology:

  • Distributed

A protocol establishes a set of rules in the form of distributed mathematical computations that ensures the integrity of the data exchanged among a large number of computing devises without going though a trusted third party.  Each block chainblock is run on computers provided by volunteers around the world, there is no central database to hack into, corrupt, or shutdown. This means that things of high value—money, stocks, bonds, intellectual property rights, music, car, and even votes —can be stored and exchanged without an institution or middleman.

  • Encrypted

Blockchain uses a two-key authentication system to maintain virtual security.

  • Inclusive and transparent

In the case of public blockchain, anyone can view all the transactions that reside on the network so no person or institution can hide a transaction. Since blockchain is open source, anyone can download it and use it. Satoshi imagined a world in which any person can interface with the block chain though a “simplified payment verification mode”  that can be used on a mobile device.  No documentation or physical presentation of proof is required to be trusted or to gain access.

  • Immutable

Within minutes all transactions are verified and, cleared, and stored in a block that is linked to the preceding block, thereby creating a chain. Each block must refer to the preceding block to be valid. This structure permanently timestamps and stores exchanges of value, preventing anyone from altering the ledger.

  • Historical

Since block chain is a distributed ledger representing a network consensus of every transaction that has ever occurred, the block chain must be preserved in its entirety.  Storage matters a great deal.  It allows the provenance of  products, art, diamonds to be traced easily.

The value of this new technology is that it allows trusted transactions to occur directly between two or more total strangers, authenticated by mass collaboration on a network of interlinked devices, and motivated by collective self-interest,  rather than by profit-motivated corporations or governments motivated by maintaining power and may be interested in surveilling its citizens or stifling dissent.  Blockchain in short eliminates middlemen.

These properties allow developers to elaborate applications for a number of different purposes.

Actual and Potential Applications

*   Financial Services

Bitcoin is the first and most prominent application of block chain technology as an e-payment system.  Bitcon was created in January 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto as a digital currency independent of any central authority, transferable electronically, and with very low transaction costs. A stable and widely accepted crypto currency stands to revolutionize e-commerce, money transfers, and even letters of credit. Cryptocurrency poses a challenge to traditional banking. Besides Bitcoin there are other cryptocurrencies such as Litecoin, Ethereum, Ripple, Peercoin, and Namecoin. To date, the value of cryptocurrencies have fluctuated widely as they struggle to gain widespread use. Nonetheless, the top ten cryptocurrences have a market capitalization of US$98.8 billion as of June 2017 but this amount is still a miniscule value of the total value of financial assets worldwide.

  • Retail and Services

It can be used in retail and services.  Any merchant who accepts digital money as payment can exchange their goods and services.  Persons and companies involved in a supply value chain can use private block chains to reduce transaction costs in their business relationships and make payments and transfers along the chain as well as pass information in a very transparent manner. For creative artists and craftspersons, using block chain along with digital media management technologies may allow them to directly market their wares, reduce piracy of electronic media, and assure quick and accurate payments.

  • Digital Identity

Identity theft is emerging as a bane of the digital age. Currently taking precautions against identify theft and attempting to restore identity after it has been compromised is an $18.5 billion annual business and growing yearly according to Distil Neworks. Using blockchain technologies would make the tracking and managing of digital identities both secure, efficient and low-cost. Identity could be uniquely authenticated in an irrefutable, immutable, and secure manner and would revolutionize online commerce, passports,  e-residency, birth certificates, wedding certificates, and work-related or government issued IDs.

  • Digital Voting

Two of the biggest hurdles to electronic poll place machines and online voting is the fear that security can be breached and that votes can be manipulated. Using blockchain, a voter could verify if his or her vote was successfully transited and remain anonymous and because of the distributed ledger technology it would not be possible to alter a vote once cased. The ability to hold e-voting could help reduce the high rates of non-participation in leading western democracies and reduce travel and wait times for countries with mandatory voting.   In weak and factionalized democracies where the temptation to rig votes is high, block chain would help preserve the sanctity of the vote and reduce fraud and subsequently reduce the disruptions caused by recounts or prolonged protests against voting exercises that are perceived as tainted.

  • Legal Contracting and Notaries

Legally binding programmable digitized contracts can be entered on a block chain and can be programmed to release funds using the bitcoin network once terms and conditions are met, reducing the need for lawyers and intermediary organizations such as banks. Notary publics can be replaced by having a digital proof of existence that allows users to upload a file and pay a transaction fee and to have cryptographic proof of it included on the bitcoin blockchain. The block timestamp becomes the record’s timestamp.

Challenges

Despite the tremendous potential of the technology, however, if governance and stewardship issues are not resolved,  the block chain technology may fail to live up to expectations. The stakeholders in the system are usually innovators, venture capitalists, financial institutions, program and application developers, internet activists, academics, and NGOs. They all have to combine and come to some basic agreement on three levels and create self-policing and regulating bodies. Since no state actors are active in this realm, the stakeholders have to collaborate, identify common interests, and create incentive to act for the communal good. Just as the early internet pioneers rejected hierarchy and acted based on rough consensus and constantly improving the code they wrote, this generation of the internet will need leadership and broad cooperation.

  1. Platform: Standards or protocols are needed to govern scalability (block size versus average bandwidth enjoyed by users), energy consumption, stability (switching from proof or work to proof of stake), and robustness of the network infrastructure in order to assure the long-term success.
  1. Applications: Some oversight is needed to ensure user-friendly interfaces and how to increase the pool of skilled developers.
  1. Legal structure for stewardship: The ecosystem needs a governance body to coordinate on matters such as interoperability, privacy, security, protection of identity, and actions to reduce the amount of legal uncertainty surrounding emergent technologies. They need to spurr more investments in research and confront incoming challenges from legacy operators and hackers that exploit open source coding to commit terrorist acts. On one hand, premature and heavy handed top down legislation or regulation could stifle the development of the block chain technology. On the other, a high level of disorganization and anarchy could prevent widespread adoption and deployment of the technology. As an open platform, users can use the technology for nefarious purposes that could be viewed as violating common core values and draw the scrutiny of public authorities.  Most recently the hackers behind WannaCry ransomware that  affected 160,000 computers worldwide and caused an estimated $4 billion in damages, demanded payment via Bitcoin because of the anonymity of the system.  Large corporations with vested interest in a closed paradigm, wealthy dictators bent on repression could appropriate applications and networks they control for their own narrow interests. Whether a formal bottom up multistakeholder governance structure, an invisible, informal, collaborative force, or attempts by state-backed institutions to impose limits remains to be seen. The block chain innovation is only eight years old.

Possible Applications in the Caribbean

In the Caribbean,  blockchain technology could be applied in the following areas:

(1) Migrant remittances where a reduction in transaction costs could help some of the most remittance dependent countries such as Jamaica, Haiti, Dominican Republic, and Guyana

(2) International business transfers facilitation as many of the regional banks face the loss of correspondent banking relationships (de-risking) with major money center banks due to a cost benefit analysis: small market size versus the high costs of compliance associated with anti-money laundering statutes

(3) Voting, especially in jurisdictions with contentious elections such as Haiti where complaints about voter irregularities are common

(4) Smart contracting that could reduce the cost of doing business and revolutionize public sector contract and procurement systems

(5) Digital identities in a region that both is a high source of out bound migration and where the majority of economies are tourist dependent and receive millions of visitors each year. A better checking of identities will facilitate both emigration and reduce the hassle to process visitors.